ASK THE EXPERT: HOW DO YOU PLAN FOR HOLIDAY UNCERTAINTY?

Q: I’m going to market soon for my holiday buys, but I am feeling a little uncertain. My vendors want me to commit to some larger orders upfront, but looking at my sales over the last 90 days I see a dropoff starting in mid-April. What would you advise? Should I plan my holiday buys even with last year?

A: I understand your feelings of uncertainty –  these times are not for the weak of heart.  Our guidance is to walk that fine line of caution and action – finding the shiny new products that will keep your customers engaged.

There is a lot of concern in the merchant community, but customers seem to be more resilient. We’ve seen a little slowdown in sales, but not a lot. The stock market is almost even for the year, and that is good news.

Our biggest concern now is paralysis. This paralysis comes in two flavors:

1. You’re overbought, or running an unprofitable trend, and you freeze up and don’t take the action required to change that trend.

2. You have open-to-buy and you’re afraid to spend it, so you miss business because of a lack of new inventory.

These are two forms of paralysis, just at the opposite ends of the spectrum. You need to focus on walking that line in the middle. You must stay flexible and allow your decision making to respond to the changing environment.

More than ever, you need to focus on those shiny new objects. Customers want to continue to shop, and your job is to give them a reason.

As for your question about the buy for holiday, what is your planning department telling you? A good merchandise planner should have an objective view of where your numbers are pointing. Times like now are when a good planner is worth their weight in gold.

Steve Pruitt is founder and Senior Consultant of Blacks Retail Analysis and Blacks Consulting. With over 30 years of experience, Steve is one of the most respected merchandise analysts in the industry. His specialty is apparel merchandising and he has worked with clients in every sector of this category. Email: steve@blksretail.com.