Retail 2018: Now Comes The Real Reckoning

There is some dispute over whether more stores opened during 2017 than were closed. IHL says yes. Fung Retail Tech says no. Mostly I say “who cares”? Either way, it’s clear that the retail landscape is changing rapidly, causing some retailers to prune their store counts, shutter locations en masse or liquidate entirely. What’s unfortunate–and not the least bit useful–is the tendency to declare that physical retail is dying and that we are going through some sort of “retail apocalypse.” The facts clearly do not support this notion. Similarly devoid of substance and nuance is the proclamation that e-commerce is eating the world and that virtually all “traditional” retailers are falling victim to the “Amazon Effect.” What IS occurring at the macro-level is three-fold. First, the irrational expansion of retail space during the past two decades is finally correcting itself. Second, as retailers better understand the physical requirements to support a world where online is a significant and growing sales channel, many are optimizing their footprints to better align space with demand. Third, and far more important, is that retail brands that failed to innovate and create a meaningfully relevant and remarkable value proposition are rapidly going the way of the horse-drawn carriage. A look at either the IHL or the FRT data reveals precisely the same picture. Lots of physical stores are being opened on the part of brands that have a winning formula, both in the value sector (think TJX, Aldi, Costco, Dollar General) and at the other end of the spectrum (think Nordstrom, Sephora, Ulta). Overwhelmingly, the retailers that are closing large number of stores are those that have operated in the vast undifferentiated middle. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that it’s death in the middle. Physical retail is not dead. Boring retail is. Read more at Forbes.