SLOW RETAIL SALES IN NOVEMBER BLAMED ON A LATE THANKSGIVING

Sales at U.S. retailers rose slightly in November suggesting the holiday season got off to a sluggish start. Retail sales in November increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over October, and the National Retail Federation (NRF) is blaming these sluggish sales on the calendar, not on consumers.

“November showed modest growth on the surface, but you have to remember that the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest portion of the holiday season and pushed Cyber Monday’s billions of dollars of retail sales into December,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the chief economist at NRF. “These numbers are more about the calendar than consumer confidence. Consumer spending has been solid, and there’s still a lot of spending to be done. With strong employment and higher wages, we’re on track for a strong holiday season.”

Kleinhenz noted that the year-over-year comparison was challenging because November 2018 was up an unusually strong 4.7 percent over the year before. But December 2018 was down 0.2 percent from the year before, making it likely that next month could show a strong comparison.

In addition, many consumers began their shopping early this year, with some starting before November. NRF surveys showed that 39 percent planned to begin by Halloween, and that consumers on average had completed 52 percent of their shopping as of the Thanksgiving Day weekend.

NRF’s forecast predicts that holiday retail sales during November and December will increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent for a total of between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion.