Will the election affect consumer confidence?

Q: So far, it looks like my business will be trending up this year, but I was wondering if I should factor in the fact that this is an election year. Could the election affect consumer confidence?

A: That’s a very interesting question. We did some research and found that historically the stock market tends to post gains in presidential election years, reflecting consumer confidence, yet retail sales tend to go down in the year following an election.

Although we don’t know for sure why this happens, there’s no reason to believe that these cycles won’t happen again during this election. Already, we are at the end of a retail cycle that has brought three years of positive growth, so it could be time for a slowdown in 2013. This year looks to be positive, but I suggest you be more conservative when planning for next year.