RETAIL JOBS SEE INCREASE IN JUNE BUT TRADE WAR COULD BECOME ‘TURNING POINT’ IN CONFIDENCE

Retail industry employment in June increased by 50,200 jobs unadjusted over the same time last year despite a seasonally adjusted drop from May of 25,800, the National Retail Federation said on Friday. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Overall, U.S. businesses added 213,000 jobs over May, the Labor Department said.

“This is another solid, robust payroll increase that nicely closes out the second quarter and affirms a very strong economy,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at NRF. “It is consistent with how consumers feel about the economy and their personal finances. Nonetheless, while payroll gains should translate into increased spending in the coming months, if the trade war spreads it may become a turning point for consumer and business confidence that could affect spending.”

June’s overall monthly employment numbers drop followed a revised monthly gain of 23,600 jobs in May but Kleinhenz said the beginning of the volatile summer hiring season often brings large swings. Coupled with downward revisions to April and May figures, the three-month moving average in June showed a loss of 1,300 jobs.

June saw monthly gains in clothing and clothing accessory stores, which were up by 6,900 jobs, and non-store, which includes online, was up 1,700 jobs. Losses were concentrated in general merchandise stores, which were down 21,500; grocery and beverage stores, down 8,600; and electronics and appliances stores, down 3,700.

Economy-wide, average hourly earnings in June were up 5 cents over May and 72 cents from a year ago, a year-over-year increase of 2.7 percent. The Labor Department said the unemployment rate was 4 percent, up from 3.8 percent in May.

Kleinhenz noted that retail job numbers reported by the Labor Department do not provide an accurate picture of the industry because they count only employees who work in stores while excluding retail workers in other parts of the business such as corporate headquarters, distribution centers, call centers and innovation labs.