How The Election Could Blow Up Holiday Retail Projections
The 2020 election is understandably expected to distract American consumers from holiday shopping this week—much as it does every election year—as they pause to see whether Donald Trump can repeat his surprise 2016 victory. Adobe, which is forecasting a banner holiday season overall, said online sales will take a temporary hit, dropping $300 million on Nov. 4, or 13% compared to the week of Nov. 1-7, which is expected to bring in $16.3 billion in holiday sales. This aligns with previous years when online sales dropped until the outcome of an election was known. Ecommerce was down 14%—or nearly $160 million—the day after the 2016 election, for example. And online sales dropped 6% the day after the 2018 mid-terms, per Adobe’s figures. Read more at Adweek.
Retail sales reporting always includes on-line, which is exactly what unnerves me so much. One article I read indicated that their survey of thousands told them that about 2/3 of American shoppers intend to do 100% of their shopping on-line this year. With that sort of potentiality out there, independent retailers like me face greater uncertainty than ever, while the total for the nation looks very much better. Much like the reporting of the overall economy, it depends who you ask: Big or small? The writer of this article seems to me to not really care all that much about the breakdown, just the total, which is one way of looking at retail and the economy. The whole idea of trickle down has been joined by the mad rush to feed the money up, and away from where people live. Remarkable; truly fascinating, like a slow motion train wreck.
I’d love to see a report that breaks down the retail makeup in the most current year possible, and compare it to 50 years ago, apples to apples. Local and Independently owned / National brick and mortar corporations / Online including that portion of the former. What percentage of the pie is owned by which sector? I know the answer anecdotally, but the facts might be less dramatic than I perceive, OR, as I dread knowing, it could be far worse.
The next two months is going to be, shall we say….Interesting, if we get through this week.